(Reporter/Analyst: Tianfeng Securities Li Lujing Zhu Xi)

1. Company introduction: Deeply cultivate the self -lubricating bearing industry, and achieve steady growth in operating performance

1.1. The status of the lubrication bearing industry is prominent, and the products are exported to at home and abroad

Zhejiang Changsheng Smooth Dynamic Bearing Co., Ltd. was founded in June 1995. In 2011, the overall reorganization became a joint -stock company. In 2017, it was successfully listed on the GEM of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

The company specializes in the R & D, production and sales of self -lubricating bearings. The main products are dual -metal self -lubricating bearings, metal plastic self -lubricating bearings, metal base self -lubricating bearings, and plastic self -lubricating bearings and other more than 30 countries including Europe and the United States, Japan, etc. And region, it is mainly used in automotive, construction machinery, agricultural machinery, light industry machinery, large construction machinery, aerospace, military, high -speed trains, high -speed high -precision machine tools, nuclear power and other fields. One of the sub -industries.

The equity structure is concentrated, and management has been deeply cultivated in the industry for many years:

The company’s largest shareholder and ultimate beneficiary Sun Zhihua holds the company’s equity ratio of 33.96%. According to the company’s annual report, shareholders Sun Zhihua’s unanimous action is Sun Weiqing, Chu Chenjian, Jiashan Parkson Investment Management Partnership (Limited Partnership). 55.91%, the company’s equity structure is relatively concentrated; Lu Xiaolin, Cao Yinchao and other company executives and important personnel hold a total of 11.29%, and the company’s interests are deeply bound with core management interests.

In addition, Sun Zhihua, chairman of the company, has been engaged in the research and development and production of self -lubricating bearings since the early 1980s. It has keen insight and market grasp capabilities for the industry. The company’s strategic planning and management experience is rich. Senior professionals in R & D, marketing, production, and management, after years of exploration and running -in, have been condensed into actual management teams with reasonable knowledge structure and professional structure configuration, rich market operation experience, and sincere cooperation.

In 2021 and 20122, the equity incentive plan was implemented to mobilize the core employee enthusiasm:

The company implemented an equity incentive plan for two consecutive years in 2021 and 20122. Among them, the stock incentive targets in 2022 were middle-level managers, core technology backbones and business backbones of the company. The performance assessment target was 2022-2024 The company’s operating income was not less than 1 billion yuan, respectively. , 1.25 billion yuan and 1.56 billion yuan; in 2021, the stock incentive object was company executives, middle management personnel, core technical backbones and business backbones. The performance assessment target was 2021-2023 that the company’s operating income was not less than 800 million yuan, respectively, 10, respectively, 10, respectively, 10, respectively. 100 million yuan, 1.25 billion yuan.

Through the incentive plan to further establish and improve the company’s long -term incentive mechanism, promote the construction and stability of the core talent team, fully mobilize the enthusiasm of the company’s core team, effectively combine the interests of shareholders, the interests of the company and the personal team of the core team, which will help help The long -term development of the company.

1.2. Positioning in the mid -to -high -end market, providing self -lubricating bearings solutions

The company is one of the most professional sliding bearing manufacturers in the world. It is committed to the development of new products and the promotion and application of new materials and new applications, and provides customers with high -quality and professional self -lubricating bearings solutions.

Depending on the materials and production processes, the company’s self -lubricating bearing is divided into metal plastic polymer self -lubricating roll bearing, dual metal border lubricating roll bearing, metal base self -lubricating bearing (including plane sliding bearing), copper -based border lubrication Rolling bearing, non -metallic self -lubricating bearings (such as fiber wound bearings, engineering plastic bearing, powder metallurgy bearings) and other bearings (such as arthropache bearing, etc.), the product specifications involved are tens of thousands.

Figure 2: Some product diagrams of the company’s products

The use of lubricating bearing is widely used, and there are many downstream applications:

The self -lubricating bearing is particularly suitable for use under heavy load, low speed and harsh working conditions (such as extreme temperature, vacuum, high altitude, corrosiveness, etc.). It is currently widely used in automotive, construction machinery, port machinery, plastic Machinery, agricultural machinery and other industries.

The company’s three main products of metal plastic polymer self -lubricating roll bearing, dual -metal border lubricating roll bearing, and metal base self -lubricating bearings are widely used. Among them With the characteristics of maintenance, low cost, corrosion resistance, etc., it is widely used in outdoor logistics machinery such as moving vehicles, high-machine, lifting platform cars, and forest machinery; the company developed CSB-50 and CSB-40 series products Lead -free advantages are widely used in the automotive industry. It is estimated that a passenger car can use more than 30 metal plastic polymer self -lubricating bearing; in addition, the company developed metal plastic polymer self -lubricating roll bearing It is especially suitable for food machinery, pharmaceutical machinery, packaging machinery and other industries.

The double -metal border lubricating roll -making bearing includes two major categories: friction welding belt border products and straight -set products. Among them, friction welding band -shielded products are mainly used in the construction machinery industry, and straight -set products are mainly used in the automotive industry.

Due to the characteristics of impact resistance, high load, abrasion resistance, and maintenance exemption, the company developed by the company’s self -lubricating bearing has been widely used in industries such as construction machinery, port machinery, plastic machinery, reservoir facilities, maintenance doors, and oil cylinders.

The company’s products are positioned in the mid -to -high -end market, and customer resources are rich:

After years of development, in terms of customer resources, the company has entered Caterpillar, Liebhaer, Putz Myster, Volvo, Jessobo, Hitachi, Komatsu, Shengang, Hyundai, Tata Automobile and other well -known OEMs and other OEMs The global supply system, and well -known car and construction machinery components at home and abroad with Merrus, Bosch, Knoel, Fojia, Berke, South Korea HK, South Korea, Karalo, Mitsubishi Technology and other domestic and foreign technology Group, Zhenhua Heavy Industry, Haitian Plastic Machinery, FAW East Machinery, Hengli Owan Tank, Hao Mai Technology and other domestic listed companies or industry advantage companies have established long -term and stable cooperative relationships.

1.3. Profitability and growth are good, and various financial indicators are excellent as a whole

On the whole, the company has achieved steady growth in operating income and net profit attributable to the mother in recent years:

During 2017-2021, the company’s operating income increased from 567 million yuan to 985 million yuan, CAGR was 14.83%; net profit of home-to-mother increased from 121 million yuan to 155 million yuan, and CAGR was 6.29%. The 2022H1 company achieved operating income of 530 million yuan, an increase of 6.01%year -on -year; net profit attributable to mother was 78 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 15.16%, and the profitability improved.

According to the guidelines of the company’s business plan, the company will use core technology advantages, new product research and development advantages, application and development advantages in 2022 to seize chip supply to improve good development opportunities such as inflection points, new energy, and consumption upgrades in the automotive industry, and continue to expand the market to increase the company to increase the company Revenue and profit. At the same time, continue to invest equipment and manage resources in an orderly manner to improve production capacity according to business plans.

Figure 9: 2017-2022H1 Company’s operating income (million yuan)

Figure 10: 2017-2022H1 Company’s net profit attributable to mother (million yuan)

The company’s profitability is good as a whole. Since 2021, the gross profit margin and net interest rate have declined:

From 2017 to 2020, the company’s gross profit margin was basically maintained at about 35%, and the net interest rate rose slightly, from 21.82%in 2017 to 22.31%in 2020;

However, due to the price of raw materials, the demand of downstream related industries, and the continuous and repeated epidemic, the company’s gross profit margin and net interest rate level declined in 2021, which decreased by 8.16pct and 6.51pct respectively. In the first half of this year, it continued to decline but tended to tend to tend Yu smooth;

From the perspective of products, in 2021, the company’s revenue accounted for the top three product metal plastic polymer self -lubricating roll bearing, dual metal border lubrication bearing, and metal -based self -lubricated bearing margin rates were 43.42%, 15.48%, 18.68, respectively %, The gross profit margin of metal plastic polymers self -lubricating roll bearing continues to maintain a high level, while the gross profit margin of the dual -metal border lubrication bearing and metal base self -lubricating bearings decreased by 12.75pCT and 11.91pct. In addition, the company The gross profit margin of non -metallic self -lubricating bearings also ranks high all year round.

The cost control ability has been improved, and the proportion of three fees has stabilized:

The management expenses in 2017 include R & D expenses, so the proportion of three fees in 2017 is at a high level; the overall level of three fees in 2018-2021 has stabilized. Management ability.

From the perspective of the company’s overall asset return capacity, the company ROA declined from 2017 to 2021, from 14.57%in 2017 to 9.87%in 2021. ROE (thin) has fluctuated but the overall remains stable, from 11.96%from 11.96% Slightly declined to 11.44%; in the first half of this year, due to the impact of equity incentives, ROE temporarily declined, but we believe that disturbances will be eliminated in the short term and the asset return capacity will gradually increase.

Accounts receivable have increased year by year, and the cash condition is healthy:

With the expansion of the company’s business volume, account receivables have gradually increased, and the account receivables received from 2017-2021 increased from 110 million yuan to 245 million yuan. The company’s mobile ratio dropped from 9.60X in 2017 to 5.65X of 2022H1, and the speed ratio decreased from 8.84x in 2017 to 4.42X of 2022H1, and the cash ratio rose from 1.47x in 2017 to 2.79X of 2022H1.

The net operating cash flow decreased from 102 million yuan in 2017 to 81 million yuan in 2021; the net operating cash flow of 2022H1 decreased significantly year -on -year. The flow is caused. The balance of cash and cash equivalent at the end of the period is normal for the year, 2022H1 is 61 million yuan, and the cash condition is healthy.

2. Sliding bearing industry: The high -speed growth period of the self -lubricating bearing bearing, the prospects of the domestic leaders are broad

2.1. Introduction to lubricating bearing: There are many advantages, and it is expected to gradually replace rolling bearings

Bearing can be divided into two categories: sliding bearing and rolling bearing:

Bearing is a component that is used to determine the relative movement position of the motion body and other parts.

Different friction properties of bearing can be divided into two categories: sliding bearings (sliding friction bearings) and rolling bearings (rolling friction bearings). Depending on the friction state presented between the shaft sleeve and the surface of the neck, the sliding bearing can be divided into fluid lubrication (friction) bearing (such as dynamic storm bearing, static pressure bearing), non -complete fluctucting (friction) bearings, and no lubrication ( Dry friction) Bearing, generally the latter two belong to the self -lubricating bearings, such as traditional oil -containing bearing, solid lubricating bearings, etc. Self -lubricating bearing refers to the use of self -lubricating materials or pre -added lubricants in the material. You can not add lubricants without adding lubricants for a long time.

According to the public account of WOW electromechanical, rolling bearings and sliding bearings have their own characteristics and their own advantages and disadvantages. We mainly compare the analysis from the following aspects:

Structure and exercise method:

The most obvious difference between rolling bearings and sliding bearings is whether there are rolling bodies. Rolling bearings: There is a roller, relying on its rotation to support the rotating shaft. Therefore, the contact site is a point. The more rolling bodies, the more contact points. Sliding bearing: There is no rolling body, and the rotating shaft is supported by a smooth surface, so the contact site is one surface. The difference between the two structures determines that the movement of the rolling bearings is rolling, and the movement of the bearing movement is sliding, so the friction situation is completely different.

Comparison of carrying capacity:

Generally speaking, due to the large pressure area of ​​the sliding bearing, its carrying capacity is generally higher than the rolling bearings, and the ability to withstand the impact load is not high. Large impact load. When the speed is high, the centrifugal force of the roller in the rolling bearing increases, and its bearing capacity should be reduced (noise is prone to occur at high speed). For dynamic pressure sliding bearing, its carrying capacity increases with the increase in speed.

Comparison of friction coefficients and starting friction resistance:

Under general working conditions, the friction coefficient of the rolling bearing is lower than the sliding bearings, and the value is relatively stable. The lubrication of sliding bearing is easily affected by external factors such as speed and vibration, and the range of friction coefficients is large. During the launch, because the sliding bearing has not formed a stable oil film, the resistance is greater than the rolling bearings, but the static pressure sliding bearing to support the friction resistance and the working friction coefficient is small.

Applicable work speed comparison:

Due to the restrictions on the rolling bodies and the temperature rise of the bearings, the speed cannot be too high, which is generally suitable for medium and low -speed working status. Due to the heating and wear of the bearing of the liquid liquid liquid, the working speed should not be too high. The high -speed performance of the complete liquid lubrication bearing is very good, especially when the static pressure sliding bearing uses air as a lubricant, its speed can reach 100,000 R/min.

Power loss comparison:

Due to the small rolling bearing friction coefficient, its power loss is generally not large. It should be less than incomplete liquid lubricating bearings, but when lubrication and installation are not increasing at the time. The liquid lubricating bearing has a low loss of friction power, but for static pressure sliding bearing, the total power loss may be higher than the dynamic pressure sliding bearings due to the loss of power pump power loss.

Life comparison:

The rolling bearing is affected by material erosion and fatigue, and the general design period is 5-10 years, or the repairs are replaced. The bearing of the liquid lubricating bearing is severe and needed to be replaced regularly. The life of a complete liquid lubrication bearing is theory of infiniteness. In fact, due to the stress cycle, especially the dynamic pressure sliding bearings, the bearing material may cause fatigue damage.

Rotating accuracy comparison:

Due to the small radial gap, rolling bearing is generally high. Increased liquid lubrication bearing is located in the border lubrication or mixed lubrication state, unstable operation, severe wear, and low accuracy. Fully liquid lubricating bearings Due to the existence of oil film, cushioning vibration, high accuracy. Static pressure sliding bearing rotation accuracy is higher.

Other comparison:

Rolling bearing uses oil, lipid or solid lubricants, the amount is small, the amount of dosage at high speed is large, and the cleanliness of oil is high. Therefore, it is required to be seal, but the bearing replacement is convenient. Generally, it does not need to repair the bucket. For sliding bearings, in addition to incomplete liquid lubricating bearing, lubricants are generally liquid or gas, with a large amount of dosage, and the oil cleanliness requirements are also high. Bearing bearing tiles need to be replaced frequently, and sometimes the neck is repaired.

Generally speaking, the rolling bearing has the advantages of small friction coefficients, high transmission efficiency, and good mechanical properties. As a dominant type in the bearing industry, rolling bearings have achieved standardization, series and generalization, suitable for large quantities of production and supply. The comprehensive development of the bearing industry.

Sliding bearing has the advantages of small volume, high loading capacity, small vibration, small noise, and many structural changes. Therefore, in the occasion with large load load and compact structures, and impact loads, sliding bearing has obvious advantages compared to rolling bearings; The advantages of a lot of changes in sliding bearing structure also enable them to be applied to a variety of different shapes of mechanical parts.

From the lubricating bearings can be divided into three categories: compound layer, single -layer, and other categories:

With the development of the self -lubricating bearing industry, the production technology and materials of the lubricating bearing have continued to innovate, and the types of products have gradually enriched. Depending on the product structure and manufacturing materials, the self -lubricating shaft is divided into three categories: compound layer, single -layer, and other categories. It is divided into multiple sub -categories.

Among them, the “compound layer” self -lubricating bearing product is composed of two or more different types of bearing materials layer. Among them, the lining material has a self -lubricating effect, the substrate is supported, and other materials have a connection transition. The lubrication effect of the “compound layer” products is excellent, and its carrying capacity is determined by the pressure resistance of the surface material.

According to the category of substrates and lining materials, it can be divided into metal substrate and metal lining composite, metal substrate and non -metallic lining layer, and non -metal substrate and non -metal lining.

“Single -layer” self -lubricating bearing product is made of a type of bearing material. The product relies on the self -lubricating materials contained in the bearing material such as graphite, molybdenum, polytrafluoroethylene, lead, etc. The category of bearing materials can be divided into metal and non -metal. Non -metallic single -layer self -lubricating bearings mainly include overall non -metallic bearing, non -metal roll bearing, etc. Metal single -layer bearing mainly includes solid inlaid products and oil -containing products.

There are many advantages of self -lubricating bearing:

General self -lubricating bearing (except for some oil bearing bearing) is particularly suitable for use at low speed, heavy load, and bad working conditions (such as extreme temperature, vacuum, high altitude, corrosive, etc.) under use or difficulty refueling). In addition, self -lubricating bearing does not require oil supply maintenance, abrasion resistance, heat resistance and other characteristics, which has greatly expanded the application scope of the product. Many areas where ordinary bearing cannot be competent can use self -lubricating bearings. Therefore space.

Gradually replace rolling bearings in some segmented areas:

Foreign abroad has begun to use self -lubricating bearing to replace rolling bearings in some segments such as ship engines, aerospace; in the domestic automotive field, the number of self -lubricating bearings on each passenger car has increased from 30 to now more than 100 pieces, and it is currently in Continuously replace rolling needles and powder bearing. At the same time, new energy vehicles bring some requirements for electrification, lightweight, comfortable improvement, and low noise, and will also drive the improvement of self -lubricating bearing and the penetration rate of similar products.

The development of the upstream industry of lubricating bearing is mature:

The upstream industries from lubricating bearing are copper (copper roll (plate), copper powder, copper blank material), steel (steel plate, steel roll) and polymer materials (PTFE, POM, PA, Pi, phenolic resin, peek, etc.) The industry, the upstream industry is mature, and is currently in a state of complete competition. The price system is more transparent and the product supply is sufficient.

As the upstream industry, the steel processing industry, the copper processing industry, and the polymer materials industry are directly related to the quality and cost of the product quality and raw material procurement cost of the self -lubricating bearing industry.

The field of downstream applications is wide:

As a basic parts of the mechanical, the application field is very wide. Almost all machinery and equipment need to use related bearing products. It mainly includes automobiles, engineering machinery, port machinery, plastic machinery, agricultural machinery, hydraulic components, forging machinery, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, textiles, Machinery, office equipment, etc., its market demand mainly includes hosting requirements and mechanical maintenance needs.

2.2. Competitive pattern: high -end and high -end market concentration, high -end products import dependence

The manufacturing technology of self -lubricating bearings originated from the UK:

In the 1950s, PTFE (polytetrafluoroethylene) began to be tested as a bearing material in the UK. At the same time, the copper powder sintering process also made breakthroughs.

In 1956, the world’s first self -lubricating DU bearings supported market with PTFE as the inner lining and supported by steel plates. At the end of the 1960s, it began to enter the field of cutting -edge technology applications such as aerospace.

Since the 1970s, British self -lubricating bearing manufacturers have permitted technical permission to France, Germany, Japan, and American companies. This measure has promoted the rapid development of the world’s self -lubricating bearing industry, and self -lubricating bearing has gradually entered all mechanical manufacturing fields.

European, American -Japanese and other manufacturers started earlier, and the advantages of domestic enterprises gradually became highlighted:

Earlier in Europe, America, Japan and other countries starting early in the lubricating bearing industry, in depth in the research and application fields of self -lubricating materials, and have certain advantages in technology and scale in terms of technology and scale. Oiles in Japan, German Kolbenschmidt, etc.

However, after years of development, the domestic self -lubricating bearing industry has a certain scale. my country’s self -lubricating bearing enterprises are mainly concentrated in Zhejiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Beijing and other places. Among them, Zhejiang Jiashan is the most important production base in my country. The output value of lubrication bearing accounts for more than 70%of the national GDP; currently the largest production scale in my country, the largest long -sized bearing, dual -fly bearing, and Zhongda bearings through the methods of strengthening quality management, increasing R & D investment, and improving production efficiency. The competitive advantage on some technical indicators has gradually become highlighted. The products are sold to the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, the United States, Japan, South Korea and other countries, forming a pattern of common competition in domestic and foreign companies.

The central and high -end market concentration is high, and high -end products still rely on imports:

In my country ’s self -lubricating bearing detailed market, there are many small and medium -sized enterprises in the low -end market, and most small and medium -sized enterprises have a low production level.

In the mid -to -high -end market, a small number of enterprises with large market share in industries such as Changsheng, Double Flying Bearing, and Zhongda Bearing have occupied most of the markets, with a high concentration. Although the product quality of the mid -to -high -end self -lubricating bearing production enterprises has reached the leading level in China and exported abroad, it has the ability to compete with those in the international industry, but the high -end market of the self -lubricating bearing is still rely on imported products.

The proportion of sliding bearing currently occupying the total market size of the bearing is still relatively small. With the development of downstream industries such as energy, transportation, metallurgy, and chemical industry, and a large number of machinery and equipment in the direction of large -scale, heavy loads, high -speed directions, the sliding bearings of the bearing of sliding bearing The demand is expected to continue to rise, thereby promoting the rapid development of sliding the bearing industry.

The market size of the global sliding bearing industry in 2020 reached 14.1 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%; the Prospective Industry Research Institute expected that the average annual compound growth rate of the global sliding bearing industry in 2020-2026 will be 9.2%. By 2026, the global sliding bearing industry The market size may reach $ 23.8 billion.

In 2020, the market size of China’s sliding bearing industry was 13.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%; the Prospective Industry Research Institute is expected to compound an annual compound growth rate of the Chinese sliding bearing market in 2020-2026. It may reach about 24 billion yuan.

Since the lubricating bearing industry is strong, the market space is expected to exceed 30 billion yuan:

Since the lubricating bearing is an emerging product in the bearing field, my country’s self -lubricating bearing industry is still in a growing period. The production technology and product quality of the self -lubricating bearing continues to be improved. There is still a lot of room for expansion in the application field of the product. In the future The industry is expected to maintain rapid growth.

With reference to the revenue of enterprises in the same industry, GGB of 2020 GGB 275 million US dollars (about 1.78 billion yuan); Oiles 50 billion yen (more than 3 billion yuan); Daido Metal of more than 8 billion yen (nearly 5 billion yuan) ; Saint -Gobban’s high -function plastic sector is estimated to reach more than 500 million yuan in the domestic automotive industry; Igus is 800 million US dollars (more than 5 billion yuan); the domestic Shuangfei shares also reached more than 600 million yuan. The company’s revenue estimates the overall market capacity of the company should be more than 30 billion yuan.

With the growth of downstream applications in the bearing industry such as the machinery industry and automobile industry, it is expected that my country’s self -lubricating bearing industry will still have a high natural growth rate in the next few years.

2.3. The prosperity of the wind power industry continues, and the prospects for sliding the bearings are broad

In the future, the wind power industry replaces rolling bearings with sliding bearings may become a trend. In 2022, the subsidy of the wind power project has been subsidized, and the large -scale increase has caused a sharp increase in the unit price of the bearing, and the increased difficulty of air power maintenance at sea. The cost pressure of the wind power hosting plant will gradually increase.

Self -lubricating sliding bearing will help in reducing purchase costs, reducing maintenance input, and improving economic benefits. It can gradually replace rolling bearing to apply to the wind power industry.

1) Application of sliding bearing in the main bearing:

Due to the size, heavy weight, high load, and higher reliability requirements, the current application of the bearing is still in its infancy. Compared with the rolling bearings, the hypo bearings can greatly reduce the difficulty of manufacturing and processing of the supporting bearing of the Daziwa fan, which improves the reliability of the bearing operation. At the same time, the volume and weight of the sliding bearings can be made into a block structure. Realize the fast, efficient update or replacement of the axle bearings.

Figure 26: Drawing location of the spindle bearing bearing installation location Figure 27: Siemens company sliding the axle patent schematic diagram

2) Application of sliding bearing in the fan partial navigation system:

The bearing is the core part of the wind power equipment. Due to the severe operating conditions and long -term continuous operation needs of wind power equipment, the requirements of long life, high reliability and easy maintenance of the bearing have high technical complexity Essence

At present, the diameter of the sliding bearing of these devices is 80-300mm, and the speed is about 0-15,000 per minute. Although at present, most of the rolling bearings are still used in the wind power generator crew, in the polarization system, as the wind turbine is large, the weight of the cabin and the torque transmitted to the tower increases. The manufacturing requirements are getting higher and higher, resulting in rising manufacturing costs of the bearings.

因此，滑动偏航轴承应运而生，目前一些国际大型风力发电机制造厂商已经开始使用复合材料，并在设计中以滑动替代滚动，利用自润滑达到机舱转动的流畅性，并保证其牢固性和Abrasion resistance.

At present, Danish VESTAS has the most mature technology in the field of sliding polarization bearing. In the partiality system of multiple models, embedded friction sliding bearing is used. ; Domestic Huarui Wind Power and Chengdu Tianma have also designed sliding polarized bearing devices.

3) Application of sliding bearing in the wind power gear box:

The wind power gear box is a key component that transmits the Micro -grade power in the dual -feed and semi -drive type wind turbine. The cost of the entire machine is more than 16%, which is an important link to reduce the cost of the whole machine.

Rolling bearing is widely used in wind power gear boxes, accounting for more than 20% of the total cost of gearboxes. It is an important link to reduce the cost of wind power gear boxes. However, at present, almost all domestic wind power gear box bearings are imported from SKF, FAG, Timken and other foreign companies. At the same time, according to the statistics of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the failure of the wind power gear box fault caused the stop time of nearly 60% of the whole machine, of which more than 67% of the failure was caused by rolling bearing failure.

With the development of the wind power gear box towards 10MW+ ultra -high power (the weight of the wind wheel will exceed 500T), and the market’s demand for high cost performance, high -reliable high -power wind power gear boxes is increasing. The radial size of the rolling bearing is too large, increasing the failure efficiency of the wind power gear box, and it will also increase the cost of wind power gearboxes, which seriously restricts its cost -effectiveness.

According to the data in the “Application and Development Trends of Sliding Bearing in the Wind Power Gener Box”, compared with the wind power gear box using rolling bearing, the torque density of the wind power gear box of the sliding bearing can increase the torque density of 25%, and the length of the transmission chain can be reduced by 5%. The weight of the gear box can be reduced by 5%, and the cost is reduced by 15%. In addition, sliding bearing is easier to achieve localization. Domestic wind power enterprises and scientific research institutes have a relatively complete sliding bearing wind power gear box to develop software and hardware conditions, which can fully meet the demand for domestic development of wind -sliding bearing.

On the whole, the research and development of domestic sliding bearing wind power gear boxes and foreign running are currently in the stage of prototype development and testing. Application of sliding bearing has become the consensus of the global wind power gear box industry, and has the development trend of 10MW+ ultra -power applications. Therefore, the development of the wind power gear box of the domestic sliding bearing with “rolling with a slip” can not only break the high -end bearing “card neck” of the high -power wind power gear box abroad, but also greatly reduce the cost of oversized high -power air power gear boxes, which will help in the oversized power wind power In the development trend of the crew, the global wind power gear box market is occupied.

The cost of sliding bearing in the wind power industry is 70%of the rolling bearings.

The advantage of sliding bearing is that the follow -up maintenance of the fan is more convenient. It can be completed on the tower, eliminating the steps of hanging, reducing maintenance costs, and shortening the time to stop the ventilator and improve the utilization of the fan. At the same time, due to the reduction of volume and weight, the fan may be redesigned, the load is reduced, and the cost is further reduced.

In addition, sliding bearing also has the advantages of small radial size and strong carrying capacity. It is expected to gradually replace the rolling bearings in the planetary peace -level bearing of wind power and gearboxes. In the context of obvious advantages of cost reduction, the future prospects of sliding bearing in the wind power industry are relatively broad.

We take the company’s current gear box bearing that is currently progressing faster in the field of wind power as an example to calculate its market space.

Mainly based on the following assumptions:

Bidding quantity:

We reasonably assume that the amount of domestic wind bidding increased by 10%per year from 2022-2025, respectively, 56.5, 62.2, 68.4, 75.2GW, and the bidding volume of the sea breeze was calculated at 5GW per year. In 2022-2025, 10, 15, and 20, respectively , 25GW.

Suppose the bidding volume of wind power in other countries increases at a rate of 17.53%per year, and the prediction of domestic bidding data is superimposed to obtain the global bidding data of land winds and sea breeze. In 2025, the bidding volume of Lufeng and sea breeze will reach 176.7GW, 52.5GW, 2021 2021 -2025 CAGR was 12.50%and 46.34%, respectively.

The proportion of new model power distribution:

We assume that land models:

In 2022, 3MW and below model bidding accounts for 10%. By 2023, the model is discontinued. In 2022, the number of models of more than 7MW will account for 5%, and the proportion of 2025 is expected to increase to 50%. Maritime models: In 2022, 10MW and 10-12MW models each accounted for 50%. By 2025, more than 14MW models accounted for 30%, and 12-14MW models accounted for 60%.

Single MW value:

The semi -straight gear box has only two -stage transmission, while the dual -feed gear box has three -stage transmission. Therefore, it is assumed that the number of bearing of the semi -direct -drive gear box is 15, and the number of double -feed gear box bearing is 23. The straight -drive wind turbine does not have a gear box. According to the announcement of Xinqianglian, the single price of 3-6MW and 6-10MW gear boxes in 2021 was 20,500 yuan and 38,700 yuan, respectively. 70,400 yuan/mW; and assume that the value of the single MW of the bearing in 2022-2025 decreases at a rate of 5%per year.

The proportion of new models:

In terms of the proportion of new installations in the land wind turbine in 2020, the dual feedback is about 60.9%, the direct drive type is about 30.5%, and the semi -straight drive type is about 8.4%. At present, the industry generally believes that the semi -straight drive fan is the future development trend. The 2021 Beijing International Wind Conference document states that the semi -direct drive is the mainstream of the next stage. 50%.

Haifeng semi -direct drive is the mainstream model. It is assumed that the new sea breeze models will be semi -straight in the future.

Based on the above assumptions, the domestic and global market space of gear box bearing in 2021 will be 35.33 and 7.970 billion yuan, respectively, and will reach 62.39 and 14.298 billion yuan by 2025, and CAGR will be 15.28%and 15.73%, respectively.

At the same time, we can calculate the market space of the main bearing bearing, polarizing paddle bearings, and generator bearings, and add it to the general market space in the field of wind power bearing.

In 2021, the domestic market space of wind and electrical bearing was 11.664 billion yuan, 2025 was 27.746 billion yuan, and the CAGR of 2021-2025 was 24.19%; the global market space in 2021 was 26.930 billion yuan, 62.746 billion yuan in 2025, 2021-2025, 2021-2025 CAGR is 23.55%.

Combined with the current R & D and test progress of wind power rectification companies, we believe that the application of sliding bearing in the wind power industry may be gradually promoted in 2023. It is estimated that the proportion of domestic bearing of the domestic bearing from 2025 is 2%and 5, respectively. %And 8%, the proportion of polarized paddle bearing is 5%, 10%, and 15%, respectively, and the proportion of the bearing of the gearboxes is 5%, 15%, and 25%, respectively, and the global market. The sliding penetration rate assumes that it is slightly higher than that of 1%in China;

Based on the above-mentioned calculated wind power bearing market space, we can get the market space of the sliding bearing in the domestic wind power industry in 2023-2025 in the domestic wind power industry, respectively, 7.66/22.48/4.111 billion yuan, and the global market space will reach 20.89/54.65/9.995 billion yuan. It can be seen that the market space in the wind power industry in the wind power industry is relatively broad in the future, and the rolling bearings are instead of the “quantity” in the wind power industry with a sliding bearings in the wind power industry.

3. Company advantage: Many advantages highlight the company’s strength, self -lubricating domestic leadership in the future

3.1. Pay attention to R & D investment and grasp the technological development trend

Since its establishment, the company has attached great importance to the research and development of self -lubricating materials and bearing and the promotion and application of new areas. Through years of research and development accumulation, the company has formed more than ten industries to form more industries such as material formula preparing process, metal -based material surface composite technology, automated roll band material production line and rear road automatic molding equipment and process technology, self -lubricating shaft material testing technology and other industries. Core Technology.

The company’s CSB-850S steel-based nickel alloys are identified as national key new products from the sideline cover of the lubricating bearing, the MJF-800 dual metal friction welding belt. Special bearing of seat motor, CSB-2050HN reactor pressure vessel support, support of lubricating board, CSB-J20 car air compressor special bearing, CSB-200Q high-performance border lubricating steel sleeve, CSB-650HD voltage pressure device supporting lever with self-lubrication lever with self-lubrication lever. 75 items such as cardiac joint bearing have been identified as provincial -level industrial new products, high -tech products or provincial -level acceptance.

Figure 32: 2018-2022H1 Company’s R & D investment (unit: 100 million yuan)

Figure 33: As of the end of 2021, the company’s patent gain (unit: item)

The company has a mature self -lubricating bearing production technology. The advantages of the company’s products are mainly reflected:

1) Establish a more comprehensive product system in the industry. The product involves tens of thousands of specifications, which can basically meet the one -stop procurement needs of customers;

2) The quality of the product is superior, and the comprehensive performance of the stability, reliability, and life of batch products has been widely recognized by the market;

3) The company focuses on creating value for customers, and can provide the entire set of material research and development and product design solutions for customers’ personalized needs.

At present, the company’s lead -free self -lubricating bearings, steel -based copper alloy inlaid solid lubricating bearings, dual metal friction welding belt border sets, container port crane special technologies and other core technologies and its products have formed preliminary complete autonomous knowledge The property rights system and industrialization capabilities have become a well -known enterprise in my country’s self -lubricating bearing industry.

In addition, the company is currently one of the main makers of industry standards. 35 national standards for sliding bearings that are hosted or participated in the formulation have been released, and 5 Zhejiang manufacturing group standards have been released. The company’s advantages in standard formulation have further enhanced the company’s influence in the industry, so that the company has the right to speak and start the advantages in technical standards and product standards.

3.2. Consolidate the downstream advantages of the original application and actively develop products in the field of wind power

In recent years, the company has actively developed and innovated self -lubricating materials technology and related processes based on the expansion of the product application field to enrich the product sequence and optimize the product structure.

At present, the company’s revenue proportion of metal plastic polymers is self-lubricated bearing, dual-metal border lubricating roll bearing, and metal base self-lubricating bearing in automotive and construction machinery industries, such as CSB-50, and developed by the company The CSB-40 series of products generally have lead-free advantages, and is widely used in hinges, wiper, shock absorbers, steering systems, pedal assemblies, seat corners, gearboxes, tightening wheels, compressors, compressors, compressors Oil pumps, air valves and other parts; dual -metal border lubricating rolling shafts include two major categories: friction welding belt, and straight -set products. Among them, friction welded belt block products are mainly used in the construction machinery industry. industry.

With the continuous decline in the three years of the Chinese automobile market in 2021, it has achieved positive growth; since June this year, the growth rate of automobile production and sales has increased significantly, the automobile industry has recovered rapidly, and the automotive industry as the company’s main application downstream field. The industry recovery is expected to drive. The company’s performance has increased; in addition, the company continues to consolidate its development advantage in the automotive industry, and actively seek the application development and market opportunities of new energy vehicles to continuously improve the company’s market share.

In addition to the market demand applied to the automotive industry, it is expected to improve, this year’s stable growth policy is expected to continue to make efforts, the inverse cycle regulation of infrastructure investment continues to be prominent, and the real estate regulation policy has ushered in marginal relaxation. According to the improvement of the marginal improvement, according to the data of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the year -on -year growth rate of excavators’ sales volume began to be positive. The construction machinery industry as the company’s main downstream application field, the marginal improvement of the industry is expected to drive the company’s construction machinery field to develop well.

At the beginning of 2020, the company’s establishment of subsidiaries included products such as puppet shafts, sealing parts, high -performance boundary lubricating shaft sleeves, end covers, and related components. Degree, continuously expand the breadth and depth of product applications, and promote the steady improvement of profitability.

Actively expanding the application of the wind power industry products is expected to usher in new growth space:

Due to factors such as the subsidy of wind power project subsidies, large -scale bearing unit prices, and increasing difficulty in offshore wind power maintenance, cost reduction demand promotes the trend of the wind power industry to replace rolling bearings by sliding bearings; In a relatively large area, the conditions of wind power bearing are very bad, and the range of temperature, humidity and load changes to be afforded is large.

In this regard, the company has increased its research and development efforts to carry out comprehensive transformation and upgrading of the product. It can be applied to the spindle system, gear box system, porting navigation system, paddle system, couplet, etc. More needs.

The company’s main products are particularly suitable for use in heavy load, low speed and harsh working conditions (such as extreme temperature, vacuum, high altitude, strong corrosiveness, etc.). point:

1) Reliable:

The corrosion resistance of the product and the traditional bearings have a higher bearing capacity than the traditional bearing, which is suitable for the changing and harsh working environment of the wind power; the anti -fatigue ability of the self -lubricating material will increase the service life and reduce the failure.

2) Low cost:

The redesigned structure will significantly reduce the value of the bearing of the wind turbine; the easier to maintain the characteristics, because its structure is simple and easy to disassemble. When the bearings fail, the maintenance does not require large -lifting equipment to enter the market, which will greatly reduce the expenses of maintenance; The smaller volume and lighter weight will drive the lightweight and miniaturization of other components.

3) Noise reduction and environmental protection:

Self -lubricating materials improve the impact resistance and reduce noise; the labor condition of less oil reduces waste oil treatment, which is conducive to environmental protection. At present, the company’s wind power field products are in the stage of test verification and plan communication according to different customers and different application parts. In the future, it is expected to become the company’s new growth pole.

Figure 36: The company’s products can be applied to the coupling in the wind power industry

Figure 37: The company’s products can be applied to the gear box system in the wind power industry

3.3. Customer resources are more high -quality, and the cooperative relationship is long -term stable

The product is positioned in the mid -to -high -end market, and customer resources are more high -quality:

The relationship between the supply chain of automobiles and construction machinery parts is characterized by high entry thresholds, long certification time, and strong stability. Once it becomes a qualified supplier of the vehicle or the whole machine manufacturer, the two parties will form a more stable supply. For long -term cooperative relationships, customer resources are not easy to lose.

The company’s products are positioned in the mid -to -high -end market. After years of development, in terms of customer resources, the company has entered Cater , Tata Automobile and other well -known OEMs’ global supply systems, and well -known domestic and foreign domestic and foreign well -known cars and engineering at home and abroad Machinery parts manufacturers and Zhenhua Heavy Industry, Haitian Plastic Machinery, FAW East Machinery, Hengli Owan Tank, Hao Mai Technology and other domestic listed companies or industry advantage companies have established long -term and stable cooperative relationships.

Customer decentralization distribution reduces the operating risk caused by local market fluctuations:

The distribution of the company’s customers covers the British, Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, South Korea, Japan, India, North America and other countries and regions. Diversified areas have reduced the operating risks caused by fluctuations in the automotive and engineering machinery market in a certain area. Future competition is in a more favorable position.

Synchronous development and host matching capabilities advantages highlight better binding core customers:

With many years of technical accumulation and product development practice, the company’s self -lubricating bearings products have reached the technical indicators of the world’s mainstream automobiles and construction machinery manufacturers and supporting manufacturers, which have the ability to simultaneously develop for home plants at home and abroad.

The company conducts mutual visits with well -known home plants or supporting manufacturers at home and abroad, capture the trend of products and technological development of major OEMs, and conduct targeted pre -R & D in the industry’s key and common problems, and grasp the technological development trend so that When projects and new platforms are launched, they can quickly match customer needs.

3.4. Management has rich experience in business, refined management promotes the long -term development of the company

Management experience is rich:

Sun Zhihua, chairman of the company, has been engaged in the research and development and production of self -lubricating bearings since the early 1980s. It has keen insight and market grasp capabilities in the industry, and has rich corporate strategic planning and management experience.

The company’s management team members are senior professionals in technology, R & D, marketing, production, management, etc. After years of exploration and running -in, the team has condensed into a reasonable knowledge structure and professional structure configuration, rich market operation experience, sincere cooperation in cooperation Actual combat management team.

The company pays great attention to refined management. It has formulated comprehensive institutional measures in various business links such as project construction, raw materials procurement, production, sales, product research and development, and cost management, and strictly implemented in accordance with the requirements of the system.

The company has passed ISO9001, IATF16949 quality management system certification, ISO14001 environmental management system certification, ISO45001 occupational health and safety management system, GB/T23001 informatization and industrialized integration management system, GB/T29490-2013 intellectual property management system, ISO50001 energy management system system certificate.

Through the management team’s collaboration and management system, the company’s smooth operation of various operations of the company has ensured that the company has strong analytical ability, response capabilities and decision -making capabilities in responding to market changes. Corporate culture and management culture.

The company has obtained a number of honorary titles such as Zhejiang’s tax credit AAA -level enterprises, Zhejiang industrial and commercial enterprise credit AAA -level “defensive contracts and credit” units, large taxpayers of Jiashan County Industrial Enterprise, and advanced units of public democratic management of factory affairs.

4. Profit forecast and valuation

We split the company’s business, namely metal plastic polymer self -lubricating roll bearing, dual metal border lubricating roll bearing, metal base self -lubricating bearings, copper -based border lubricating rolling bearing, non -metallic self -lubricating bearings, copper base, copper base The border lubrication bearing, other main businesses, and other businesses. In 2021, the company’s total revenue was 985 million yuan, the income yoy was 50.32%, the cost was 713 million yuan, the gross profit was 272 million yuan, and the gross profit margin was 27.66%.

Our prediction of the company’s business in the next three years is mainly based on the following assumptions:

1) According to the company’s prospectus, the company’s main business accounting for the largest proportion of the main business is mainly used as the construction machinery industry and the automotive industry; with the continued promotion of the inverse cycle regulation of infrastructure investment with the steady growth policy, the continued prominentness of the infrastructure investment, real estate The regulatory policy ushered in marginal relaxation. We believe that the demand in the construction machinery industry is also expected to usher in marginal improvement. According to the data of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the year -on -year growth rate of excavator sales began to be positive. The construction machinery industry as the company’s main downstream application field, The marginal improvement of the industry is expected to promote the development of the company’s construction machinery field.

2) In 2021, the Chinese automobile market continued to decline in three years and achieved positive growth. Since June this year, the automobile industry has recovered rapidly. In June, automobile output/sales volume+26.80%/23.77%, respectively. +31.50% /29.70%, the automotive industry as another main application downstream field of the company, the industry recovery is expected to drive the company’s performance growth.

3) The wind power industry is developing in a larger power and lower cost direction. The use of sliding bearing instead of rolling bearing is an important technological development direction for the wind power industry. We believe that the future wind power industry will replace rolling bearings with sliding bearings in the future. From the domestic leader of lubricating bearing, it is expected to benefit from the application of sliding bearing in the wind power industry in the future.

4) According to the information disclosed by the company in the investor Q & A, the main raw materials used by the company’s self -lubricating bearings include copper, steel, and polymer materials. Taking value as a reference, copper materials account for relatively high, steel is second. Copper prices have continued to decline since the end of May this year. Steel prices have shown first and then declined since this year. Since April, we have continued to fall. We believe that the company’s main raw material prices have declined, or the company’s profitability will be increased.

We chose the national aircraft precision, Hengli hydraulic pressure, and Eddie Precision as the company’s valuation reference. According to the calculation, the PE arithmetic average of comparable companies 2021/2022/2023 was 36.34/30.18/24.85X, respectively, while Changsheng Bearing 2022 -The net profit of the predicted period of the 20124 forecast period was 2.00/2.55/314 million yuan, respectively, and the average valuation of the company in 2022 was 30.18X.

The company’s core competitiveness in the industry gives the company’s 35X valuation in 2022. The target market value is 7.0 billion yuan, and the corresponding target price is 23.49 yuan.

5. Risk prompt

1. The risk of macroeconomic cyclical fluctuations:

The company’s downstream industry has strong cyclical characteristics, making the company’s self -lubricating bearing industry also present a certain periodic fluctuation. Generally speaking, when the macroeconomic grows rapidly, the market’s demand for automobiles, engineering machinery, port machinery, plastic machinery, and agricultural machinery also increases rapidly, thereby promoting the healthy and rapid development of the self -lubricating bearing in the industry. When the economic growth rate slows down, the growth rate of the detailed segment of the lubricating axis will also slow down, and even the decline will occur.

2. The risk of fluctuations in the price of the main raw materials:

The main raw materials used by the company to produce self -lubricating bearings include copper, steel, and polymer materials, and the price of copper materials is higher. As the basic raw material of the national economy, the price trend is influenced by the macroeconomic, copper futures market, supply and demand relationship and other factors. The fluctuation of copper prices will directly affect the company’s production cost, which will affect the gross profit margin of the product and the stability of operating performance.

3. Risk of exchange rate fluctuations:

The company’s export business is mainly priced and settled in the euro and the US dollar, while raw material procurement is settled in RMB in the country. If the exchange rate of the RMB to the euro or the US dollar fluctuates sharply, and the company fails to adopt effective measures such as the linkage mechanism of timely adjusting the price of the product and the fluctuation of exchange rate fluctuations, shortening the exchange and selling cycle, and the proportion of foreign exchange settlement income. Risk of exchange rate fluctuations.

4. Risk of international trade friction:

The company’s foreign customers are mainly concentrated in Germany, Britain, Italy, France, Sweden, South Korea, Turkey, India, the United States and other places. Although there was no trade restrictions on my country’s self -lubricating bearing products in 2021, the company’s products belonged to the Sino -US trade war increase list products, and as my country ’s self -lubricating bearing industry increased its overall strength, exports continued to rise, foreign companies may be possible It will propose trade protection measures such as anti -dumping in my country’s self -lubricating bearing industry, and then it will adversely affect the company’s operating performance.

5. Risk of talent introduction:

The company’s industry has the characteristics of innovation, high -tech and other characteristics, and has a large demand for technical talents. Technical talent reserve is an important factor in the industry’s vitality and company’s vitality. In addition, the continuous expansion of the company has also stimulated the company’s needs for talents, including the needs of outstanding technical talents and outstanding managers. Therefore, whether the company can introduce core technical talents and outstanding managers is vital to the company’s development.

6. The demand for downstream industries is less than expected risks:

The main application areas of the company’s downstream are the construction machinery and automotive industries. If the downstream construction machinery or automotive industry has a periodic decline, it will have a great impact on the company’s product demand, which will affect the company’s operating performance.

7. Repeated risk of the new crown epidemic:

Since 2022, the prevention and control situation of the new crown epidemic has been repeated, logistics transportation has been blocked, and delayed product acceptance, which may lead to the corresponding delay of the company’s order delivery and income confirmation. Therefore, it is not ruled out that the future operations continue to be affected by the epidemic and macroeconomic fluctuations.

8. The calculation in the article has certain subjectivity and is for reference only.

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