From Benjamin? L? Caton revealed in the book “Triggering the Signal of your transaction”: This condition of the cross point of the two different cycles of mobile average can be used to calculate the secret of tomorrow’s price one day in advance , Make the accurate prediction (rather than probability judgment) a fact! Although he only had a day in advance, it led the moving average theory to span ten years!
When the moving average and the price change above the moving average, it is always the stage of opening and warehouses. When the moving average and the price change under the moving average, it is always the stage of opening and warehouses. When the moving average is upward, the price changes below the moving average, or the moving average is down. When the price changes above the moving average, it is a closure and watching stage.
The principle of moving average is actually very simple, but it is not easy to truly understand it, and it is even more difficult to use it in actual combat. This requires us to have a deep understanding of technical analysis and master the essence of technical analysis at the same time. Talent.
Many people think that the moving average is very simple and is not worth learning. But I want to tell you: “Your view is wrong! You don’t understand the essence of technical analysis.” In technical analysis, the simpler the more reliable, because these classic analysis methods have long been, and have been widely verified in many years of actual combat. If this method is useless, then it will not spread to this day to this day Essence If you use the wrong use in use, then you can only show that there is a problem in the depth of using and understanding, the reason why the error is because you did not really understand it, and did not really master it.
As we all know, the moving average system commonly used by most investors on the 5th, 10th, 20th, and 30th day is essential to observe the direction of the channel formed by these average. The focus is on the grasp of the trend. The channel describes the direction of the trend. If the rising channel will continue to rise over time, it will decline over time over time. In the standard rising channel, the daily K -line is above the 5 -day moving average, above the 10 -day moving average, and the 10 -day moving average above the 20th. ; In the standard decline channel, the situation is the opposite, that is, the price increase we often talk about is suppressed by the moving average system. The content of each moving average and their characteristics, in addition to the differences between the cycles,, are different.
1 five -day average
The five -day moving average is an indicator of ultra -short -term trading. The operation methods are also mainly ultra -short or short. When the price leaves the 5th line too far, too much higher than the 5 -day line, that is, the “five -day departure rate” is too large, it is a short -term selling opportunity. How large the liberation rate can be sold, depending on the strength of individual stocks and different sizes. Generally, the price is higher than 70 % to fifteen percent of the 5th line, which is high and suitable for selling. Generally, the price is 7 % to fifteenth, which is suitable for short -term buying.
If the price drops and falls without breaking the 5th line, it is suitable to buy it when it starts again. Generally speaking, when the price is rising, most of the time often does not break the 5th or 10th line. As long as you do not break, you can continue to hold positions in combination with the general trend and market fundamentals. If the shortness of the market is the main force of the market, but the price is slightly recovered and the 5 -day line is not breaking, it will appear to sell a large number of throws again, and it is appropriate to sell it when it starts.
If the price falls below the 5 -day line and cannot pass the 5 -day line, you need to beware of the risk of chasing high and pay attention to selling high. If the price breaks through the 5 -day line and the 5 -day line, it will not break, or if it falls below the 5 -day line but stops, it is necessary to prevent the killing of the air and pay attention to buy back.
If the price falls below the five -day line, it will generally fall to the 10th or 20 -day line. If it falls to the 10th line, the 20 -day line is stable and the price starts again, the chips sold at a high level can be replenished in a short term depending on the situation to avoid being rolled out. If the price rises effectively through the five -day line, it will generally rise towards the 10 -day or 20 -day line. If you rise to the 10th and near the 20th line, and the price has fallen again, you can sell it in the short term depending on the situation.
Ten -day moving average
Compared to the five -day moving average, the use of the ten -day moving average is much more and more important. Many people can even achieve long -term profitability even with the 10 -day moving average.
So, what is the theoretical basis of the ten -day moving average method, or why the ten -day moving average method is greater?
First analyze why you buy above the 10 -day moving average. You can observe that the process of rising and falling in prices obviously buys in the process of rising. Only one thing is wrong (the highest point), and the only thing to buy during the decline is right (the lowest point). The selling situation is the opposite of this. Therefore, we believe that the buying and winning noodles during the rise (assuming 90%), and the technical significance of the price on the ten -day moving average is that the stock is rising, so buying goods on the 10th on moving average (90%) And some investors are small (10%) for the 10 -day moving average.
Let’s analyze why it is sold until the price falls below the ten -day moving average? Most shareholders rose 20%-30%at first sight, or even 10%, and quickly throw it out without waiting for the 10-day moving average. Conversely, if the price falls, it will be reluctant to break the loser to confirm the compensation after breaking the ten -day moving average. The practice is exactly the opposite of the 10 -day moving average method.
Once you buy it, the situation is simple (in fact, it is not easy to do). If you buy it right and the stock continues to rise, you will wait until it will fall below the ten -day moving average before making a profit, otherwise it will always be held. This is what I said to be able to keep it right.
If you buy it wrong, it will fall below the ten -day moving a few days, and you must also be cleared or liquid. That is, the liquidation must be resolute. In fact, there are many tricks behind this simple ten -day moving average method.
If you buy it at the ten -day average method until the price rises to the ten -day moving average before buying, it often loses the profit from the lowest price; it is only sold after falling below the 10 -day moving average, and it will lose it from the highest price. This is the highest price. A piece of profit. In fact, this is the essence of the famous fish body theory.
That is, in the price area area, the situation is not clear and risky. It belongs to the fish head, it is not easy to slap. It is better to avoid. It was not until the discovery price entered a clear rise phase, the risk was small, and when the winner was large (the fish body), it was bought. In the second stage of the rise in prices, although there may still be room for rise, the risk is large, just like the fishtail, it is not advisable to intervene. Many people know this truth and eat fish bodies.
But how do you know which fish body? The ten -day moving average method is to provide an objective method of judging the fish body. When the price comes through the ten -day moving average from the bottom, we can assume that the fish head is available, and it must be the fish body, but it is just a problem with the size of the fish body, so we can buy it. The price continued to rise on the 10 -day moving average, and the fish was continuously displayed, but it could not be sold without seeing the whole fish body. Until the price fell below the ten -day moving average, we could think that the fish tail had appeared. That piece is that the fish body is already very clear, and there is no reason to leave.
There is a wrong way: when the price in the hand rises for a while, it feels almost the same, sell it, and let the fish tail behind let others eat. But you said that it would be doubled by 30%. You said that it has doubled the fish body, what if it rose ten times in the end? Recently, some have risen to ten times, so that you will not be able to keep in the end. In fact, the reason is simple. The fish body must wait until the fishtail is exposed to confirm! It can be seen that transactions, as long as you can adhere to the correct principles, do not need to have strong imagination, you can make a lot of money.
In the transaction, it is not only full of opportunities, but also full of traps. A more reasonable market should be half a probability. How to make money in the market is actually attributed to how to seize opportunities and avoid trap. The ten -day average method provides a means of avoiding auspiciousness.
Let’s talk about avoiding murder first. The market decline may be in different ways. Novices often think of chasing when they rebound, but they do n’t want to buy the apex of the rebound, becoming the victim of the next wave of decline; the clever one will buy it when the indicators are oversold, but these differences are generally not large. , Risk high. And the 10 -day moving average method can only consider buying more than 80%of the risk of such errors on the ten -day moving average. More than 20%of the remaining 20%can be filtered out. You can also use the second principle to stop loss in time. Therefore, this method can avoid risks to the greatest extent. It can be said without exaggeration that if you strictly implement the ten -day moving average method, you can’t spread any financial disaster in the world.
Besides, it is auspicious. Once you buy it right, you can’t let it go easily. Some people see that they have risen for a while or throw it at the psychological price. Affected by the atmosphere of the market, it is not easy to be washed out without breaking the line. Of course, if you want to sit more steadily, you can also choose 15,30 antennas, but you have lost some profit at the top for ten days. Of course, the result of a choice is. To take more aggressive strategies, they are willing to take greater risks. It is reasonable if they can make more money. Otherwise, if everyone does it according to the ten -day moving average method, the market will not have a transaction as soon as the market falls below the ten -day moving average. How can we ship it? Who supports our brokers, exchanges, and listed companies? This is the charm of the market.
Research on Model Warrior (IV) -Proster Line
The decision -making line is what we usually call the 60 -day moving average, which is different from the lifeline we mentioned in the previous period. The lifeline is the basis for the strong and weak state of the stock price band. The similarities of the same work, but the response is more sensitive than the trend line. All the main force and the dealer attach great importance to the decision -making line. Once the decision -making line turns up, the main force basically has the courage to hold the stocks. If the decision -making line is broken, the trader will choose to clear the position unconditionally for safety considerations. Therefore For retail friends, in terms of shareholding strategy, we must attach great importance to the guiding significance of the decision -making line, at least to keep their direction selection and the main force consistent. Although the decision -making line can also be used for timing, weekly, and monthly systems, it is generally emphasized that it generally refers to the daily line.
1. Once the decision -making line turns down, it must be selected unconditionally to clear the warehouse and leave the field
Let’s talk about the turn of the head because I want to emphasize the risk first. In 2007, many people in the big bull market made a lot of money, but later not only lost all the vested profits, but lost the capital. As a result, I can say that many retail friends are more desperate. According to most people’s trading habits, it is a small probability event without losing money. If you have no intention to learn, it is recommended that you evacuate the stock market early.
2. The decision -making line turns up and turns upwards.
On January 15, 2009, when the Shanghai Stock Exchange was at 1900, the decision -making line turned up for the first time after leaving, which means that a large -scale market has begun, and the listing can be re -positioned. Investment is your own business. The media, institutions, and celebrities are unreliable. After calmness and independent thinking, you decide your strategy. Even if you do it wrong, it is not terrible. It is terrible that you make any decisions like duckweed.
Research on moving average (5) -Suction line
The auxiliary line is the 20 -day moving average in the book. , It seems a little bitter, and it feels a bit sparsely felt visually. I always feel that there is something missing. Therefore, the existence of the auxiliary line on the 20th makes the moving average system look more symmetrical and comfortable. Although it is not particularly important, it is indispensable, but it is indispensable This may be the role of the auxiliary line. The second is that in actual use, the auxiliary line provides trend guidance for friends who are based on the trading line, so that you will not make you see the trees from seeing the forest. When you are carefully calculated in the short -term, the auxiliary line will give you the overall guide. The third is that the auxiliary line can correct the problem of delay in the lifeline. If the lifeline turns down, the stock price band may have fallen a lot, and the auxiliary line will make you prediction in advance to reduce your losses.
Since the previous attack lines, trading lines, lifeline, etc. of the moving average system were discussed in detail, the auxiliary line also adopted the same routine. It is no longer nonsense, and we directly combine the actual combat explanation.
Research on moving average combat method (6) -the best buying point
The buying point here needs to meet the following two conditions:
First, the moving average is flat and dense. This place is very important. The moving average of the market indicates that the market pressure is very light, and the dense entanglement indicates that the support of this place is closely not easy to fall, that is, it is safe to buy here.
Second, the stock price needs to exceed the moving average densely. This is the key. The moving average means that the multi -liability is evenly matched, mostly the main force in this stage. The breakthrough of the volume means that the main force has been launched, and the snake is seven inches. Buying this place is the key point of the time and space starting the stock price.
Research on Model Warrior (7) -The best selling point
There is indeed the best selling point in the average line combat method. Let’s talk about how to deal with the selling point of the stock as soon as possible in combination with actual combat cases. When the moving average turning head is densely diverted downward, it indicates that the market is starting to fall quickly. At this time, it must be sold decisively without hesitation. This is exactly the opposite of the best buying point.
There are so much about the best selling point. It is necessary to emphasize here that when the moving average turns densely downward, it must be sold whether the stock price is measured or not. This is different from the best buying point. Generally, it comes It is said that as long as the moving average densely diverges down the stock price, the stock price will fall. Different volume is often a sharp decline, and the reduction is often a slow decline, but the effect is the same.
Research on moving average combat method (8) -The a moving average warfare
The moving average warfare has been talked about seven issues. According to the conventional content, it is basically finished, but as the stock market, some things often do not follow the routine. The same is the same, and then it is not so difficult to make money. In the stock market, you must understand that there is no way for anyone to participate in the place where the spirit of all people is involved, so there are some things that I still have something to do Need to talk to friends.
Some friends don’t seem to understand the meaning of the above paragraph above. There is a good thing in philosophy, the generality and special nature, generally healing generally exist, and the speciality is very different from the individual.
The stock market is indeed unpredictable. Although some regular things are generally applicable, there are occasional special stocks that do not play cards according to the routine. Specific analysis should be analyzed in specific problems. This is the general law that the combat method tells us. There must be courage to dare to operate in actual combat. At that time, no one knew that 601668 would fall after a rebound, but when the stock price fell below the start of the Dayang Line, it was necessary to stop the loss. The tactical discipline when it comes to the market is essential. By the way, I will tell those who have suffered setbacks by the way. Do not lose confidence in certain regular regular technical methods because of the occasional failure. Good methods and technologies can only increase the probability of making money on your money, but you will not keep you all hundreds of hair, and sometimes luck is essential.
Friends do not have some kind of unpredictable or mysterious and weird ideas about the moving average of me. The moving average is not a technical indicator. It is the same as KDJ and MACD. Its function is to tell you the current current What is the state of market or stock? As for attack lines, trading lines, auxiliary lines, lifestyle, decision lines, and trend lines, such as everyone is most commonly used, just like everyone speaks English, so English has become a world exchange. The universal language is the same. In this regard, you do n’t have to stick to it. Many friends around me do n’t need this moving average system. Instead, the 5 -day average, 8 -day moving average, 13 -day moving average, 21 -day moving average, 34 -day moving average, 55 -day moving average as the basis for the decision to decide on the market. This is the use of Fibonacci numbers. Fibonacci numbers represent the regular cycle of the evolution of all things. I tried this moving average system and it was completely feasible. If everyone is sticking to the habit, then our technical analysis cannot be innovated. In fact, the technical analysis method must always continue to develop. At present The actual combatability is too poor, and its refinement and degeneration need to be improved.
Article 1: The accuracy of the sale signal formed by the 10 -day moving average under the 10 -day moving average is extremely high. Although it has fallen for a long time, it is still a chance of shipping.
Article 2: When moving on average from rising to downward on the 60th, it is the last chance to escape.
Article 3: But after the stock price fell below the 10 mobile average, it fell below the 30th and 60th mobile average. It indicates that the beginning of the mid -term decline will have a deeper decline and escape quickly.
Article 4: But the stock price hovers up and down on the moving average, but the mobile average continues to fall. It is advisable to wait and see after selling.
Article 5: When the trend line is obviously arranged short, when the stock price rebounds to the mobile average near or even up, it should usually be decisively thrown.
Article 6: The short -term moving average from top to a decline below the medium- and long -term mobile average to form a death cross. This is a manifestation of the short market, and the market outlook is very easy to fall.
Article 7: The stock price operates below the moving average. When a rebound, it fails to break through the moving average, and the moving average shows a downward trend. At this time, it is related to selling.
Article 8: If the average line of the 10th, 30th and 60th day is operating at the bottom right, it means that the long market is over and the short market comes, and it is advisable to leave the warehouse to rest.
Article 9: Things must be the essence of philosophy, but the stock price operates above the moving average, deviating too far, and when the departure rate is very large, the stock price will eventually be pulled back to the mobile average.
Article 10: The moving average gradually flattes from the rise, and when the stock price falls below the mobile average from the top to falling, it means that the selling pressure is gradually heavy, which is the timing of selling.
Article 11: When there is not much room for rising, the general trend will break down the support level to ship, but if the rise is large, and it will break through the support level by the decline of the market indicator stock, slowly shipping to prevent the dealer from preventing the dealer Breakthroughs in fake fake.
Article 12: In the rising market, when the stock price falls from top to a 10 -day moving average, it means that the short -term turns over, and shares should be sold.
Article 13: It is necessary to ship near the resistance level and wait and see. When it is rising to the dense area formed in the previous formation, the unclean set and profit plate are afforded, the increase in increased pressure is aggravated, and the throwing rate is large.